The tectonic plates of international relations were not just trembling in January 2024; they had been grumbling for months.
The tremors first became apparent on the floor of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in December 2023. Ryan Shaban, in the January 2024 Eurasia Strategy Insights report, described the scene of the first UNGA emergency session held in 26 years, where a resolution demanding an "immediate humanitarian ceasefire" in Gaza exposed a starkly fractured world. 153 out of 193 countries, a far cry from the usual US-led coalitions, voted in favour—highlighting a shift in the global power dynamic. The United States, for the first time in recent memory, which voted alongside 9 other countries that opposed the resolution, seemed to be on the outside looking in— with its grip on the international political order loosening.
This undercurrent of multipolarity, which has now bubbled into January 2024, has promised to reshape the international stage in unpredictable ways this year.
For us here in Nigeria, the tremors in December should have been a reminder that in the global order, alliances are fluid and interests diverse.
This is why, with the North-South divide at Davos, the newly expanded BRICS+ flexing their muscles globally, the US-China diplomatic dance in Africa, and the lessons of African excellence from the ongoing African Cup of Nations (AFCON) — the message has become clear: the old world order has changed — and Nigeria must be intentional and strategic if it wants to play a prominent role in the new global order.
Here are three things that Nigerians should watch out for on the international stage in 2024.
North vs South, Davos vs Kampala
The World Economic Forum in Davos brought together leaders from the established powers of the global North to discuss pressing international issues like climate change, economic inequality, and technological disruption.
At the same time, the Non-Aligned Movement summit in Uganda gathered representatives from about 120 nations — many of which are developing countries that belong to the global South — to advocate for their interests and priorities on the international agenda.
These contrasting events underscored the evolving landscape of international relations. The global South, once largely on the periphery of the global order, is now playing an increasingly assertive role. Developing countries are becoming more vocal about matters that affect their national interests — and collaborating to advance these shared interests.
The juxtaposition of the cold, wintry forum at Davos, and the warm, sunny summit in Kampala also highlighted the key areas of divergence between the interests of the global North and the global South.
Going into 2024, the North is focusing on cold hard issues like economic growth, the proliferation of artificial intelligence and the free market system. On the other hand, the South is prioritising optimistic objectives like sustainable development, poverty reduction, and access to resources. These differences in priorities may lead to increased tensions this year— or, they can serve as launchpads for collaboration on the international stage.
As the world continues to evolve rapidly, it is important to bridge the divide between the global North and South. Developed and developing countries need to find ways to communicate and cooperate on common challenges in order to build a more inclusive and equitable international order.
This is why, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Nigeria's calls for a democratisation of the international order could not have come at a more appropriate time. While speaking on a panel titled Securing an Insecure World, our Minister for Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Yusuf Tuggar, argued that the current structure of the United Nations Security Council, with its permanent members and veto powers, is outdated and hinders effective decision-making on critical issues that affect the global South.
Responding to a question on what the global North must do to accommodate the interests of the global South, the Foreign Minister criticised the veto power held by the five permanent members, which he described as undemocratic — stating that these powers prevent the passage of resolutions on pressing conflicts. He also called for a number of reforms, including the creation of new permanent seats for countries like Nigeria — which would better reflect the realities of the 21st century.
Now, Nigeria must see how it can work within the established international framework to lead this democratisation process —understanding that this change will not be served à la carte and that the only thing that remains constant on the international stage is that every country, even our allies, are self-interested.
Blinken, China, and BRICS+
In another major trend, geopolitical analysts are also closely monitoring the growing influence of China and BRICS+ nations on global affairs. To put this into perspective, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), with a projected 43% of global oil production under their belts, BRICS+ nations are poised to challenge the West's dominance in the financial sphere through the creation of a new institutional development bank and their de-dollarisation agenda. This move could potentially reshape the global financial landscape and offer alternative financing options for developing countries.
China, specifically, with its expanding influence in the global South, will also have a major impact on the future of international relations. For instance, following the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s recent visits this month to Egypt, Tunisia, Togo, and Ivory Coast—in response, the United States Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, announced a four-state visit to Cape Verde, Ivory Coast, Angola, and Nigeria.
For both superpowers, their visits to Africa were strategically motivated. China was sending a signal regarding the future trajectory of Africa-China collaboration. While the United State’s visit was aimed at securing and strengthening its already existing partnerships across the continent.
For us here in Nigeria, we must see the visit of both Wang Yi and Blinken to Africa as a reminder that the global superpowers have growing or declining strategic interests on the continent. Hence, we must evaluate our strategic alliances on a case-by-case and issue-by-issue basis. As the foremost political, economic, and military force in the West African subregion, if we want to maintain our strategic relevance, every decision that we take must adhere to our longstanding commitment to multilateralism and non-alignment.
Moving forward, our foreign policy must be primed to monitor the growing influence of BRICS+ on the global financial system, in order to take early advantage of any benefits that might arise from such a system. As we do this, we must also maintain a strong relationship with the West that prioritises our development objectives and overall national economic and security interests.
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AFCON and soft power
The ongoing Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) organised by the Confederation of African Football (CAF) in Ivory Coast serves as a powerful reminder that the world will pay for and pay attention to well-organised African entertainment, and will tune in to watch African excellence. With a staggering 6,000 media accreditation applications – over 100% more than the 2022 Cameroon edition – the tournament has captivated global interest. This surge is further fuelled by a significant increase in financial backing from broadcasters across continents, promising a substantial viewership boost for this AFCON. This translates not just to amplified broadcasting revenue for CAF, but also to a crucial boost for football development across Africa.
Nigeria must see this AFCON’s success as a story of African excellence translated globally through entertainment. This is why we must look beyond the traditional avenues like security, economics, and diplomacy to exert our international influence. We already have an organic international reputation as a global superpower in the entertainment sector; it is time for us to turn this reputation into an actual National Softpower Strategy.
Such a strategy should be driven by the global reach of Nigerian music and Nollywood. It should also focus on crafting a new and compelling international brand for Nigeria that amplifies our strengths, confronts our negative stereotypes, and opens new doors for beneficial international partnerships. It would be non-traditional diplomacy, but with the way the world is fast-evolving beyond non-traditional ways of doing things, a national ‘dancing diplomacy’ strategy — aka a Softpower Strategy — may not be such a bad idea.