No, Mexico isn't more dangerous than Iraq and Syria

Mexico placed second in the number of homicides among countries considered to be in armed conflict, according to a report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies — but a number of observers and Mexico itself have disputed the report's assertions.

The nearly 23,000 intential homicide victims in Mexico in 2016 exceeded the 17,000 and 16,000 registered in Afghanistan and Iraq, respectively, and were only less than the 50,000 killings recorded in Syria, the IISS report states.

The report put El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala — the Northern Triangle — on par with Afghanistan, seeing 16,000 homicides in 2016.

Those three countries and Mexico all outstripped Yemen, Somalia, and Sudan in terms of homicides, according to the report.

"It is very rare for criminal violence to reach a level akin to armed conflict," IISS said in a release, saying (emphasis added):

While much of the coverage of Mexico has revolved around the country's deadly violence, Mexico's inclusion among states mired in civil conflicts or wars based on political disputes elicited surprise and consternation.

The Mexican government, in a statement issued through the foreign and interior ministries, objected on a number of grounds, saying the report "reflects estimates based on uncertain methodologies," and that the existence of criminal groups and the use of the armed forces to maintain domestic order were "not a sufficient criteria" to speak of armed conflict.

A number of analysts also raised issues with the report's conclusions and the data it considered. One of the main points of contention was how the homicide figures were weighed. The IISS report ranked countries in part by the total number of homicides, rather than by a per capita rate.

The SESNSP homicide totals include deaths related to domestic and interpersonal violence and those stemming from common crime, not just deaths related to organized crime. According to the Justice in Mexico project, something like one-third to a half of Mexico's homicides appear to be related to organized crime.

Others noted that the conditions laid out by in IISS' release — organized groups armed with military-grade weapons fighting for control of territory — likely applied to other countries in the region, such as Brazil, where in some places large armed gangs fight each other and have retaliated against police operations with public violence, and Venezuela, where organized armed groups challenge the state's control in some areas.

As in Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela, and parts of the Northern Triangle have deployed their militaries or militarized police forces to quell insecurity.

The Mexican government in its response said "violence related to organized crime is a regional phenomenon" that goes beyond Mexico's borders. "The fight against transnational organized crime should be analyzed in a comprehensive manner."

Mexico does have a problem with violence — one that is exacerbated by impunity, weak institutions, and economic underdevelopment. And much of the spike in deadly violence seen there in recent years is likely related to organized crime.

But responses to a report seen as oversimplifying or methodologically questionable were withering.

"Equating these [countries] with Syria is analytically lazy and lends itself to the wrong policies," Tom Long, a professor at the UK's University of Reading, said on Twitter. "They aren't mainly political conflicts."

"Yes there's tragedy in Mexico, but not accurate to suggest it's like Syrian war," Brian J. Phillips, a professor at the CIDE in Mexico City, said on Twitter, "and per capita other countries have much more violence."

"I hope these morons are happy," Mexican security analyst Alejandro Hope tweeted. "Their idiotic report was already retweeted by @realDonaldTrump."

Update, March 12: The International Institute for Strategic Studies emailed a statement to Business Insider, part of which is quoted below.