Why have the goals dried up for Super Eagles striker Taiwo Awoniyi?

These are lean times for Taiwo Awoniyi.

The Nigeria international scored 14 goals in 23 matches at the start of the season, earning himself a national team debut as well as serious acclaim. The well now seems to have run dry, however. Since his opener against RB Leipzig in mid-December, the 24-year-old has only scored once in any competition: away on international duty at the Africa Cup of Nations.

Just what is going on?

Well, for one thing, Union Berlin are not in a good place at the moment. They have lost three matches on the bounce, all without scoring a goal, and have slipped three places from fourth on the Bundesliga table to seventh.

To boot, they are starting to lose a number of the players that underpinned their rise – this winter, they let Max Kruse leave, and in the summer Grischa Promel will join Hoffenheim. Even worse is that it does not seem (yet) that much effort is going into replacing their talent drain.

Instead, they appear to be betting on what they already have. This brings us neatly to Awoniyi, who is now expected to carry an even greater responsibility for the team’s attack. 

So far, though, it has not looked an inspired decision. 

Awoniyi has his strengths, of course. He is finishing perfectly in line with expectations, based on the quality of his shots (nine goals from 9 Expected), and has good movement on the last line. However, what he does not do is take a load of shots – he averages just under 3 per game over the course of the season – or create much of any quality, whether for himself or for others. In the dictionary entry for ‘poacher’, there is an image of Awoniyi.

Basically, the idea as far as chance creation goes for Union has been quality over quantity. The trouble with this as a strategy is that the margins are extremely fine, and there is little room for error. So, here is what you do not do under any circumstances: you do not sell your second-strongest chance creator in the middle of the season in Kruse (who incidentally doubles as the player with the third-highest non-penalty xG in the squad), and you certainly do not do it without signing some kind of replacement.

By deciding to do that, Union have basically tanked their entire concept. 

This is borne out when you consider that their downturn coincides perfectly with the departure of the 33-year-old.

Even with their top goalscorer away at AFCON, Union still got seven points from meetings with Bayer Leverkusen, Borussia Monchengladbach and Hoffenheim, with Kruse in the team and playing a key role. However, Awoniyi’s return coincided with the departure of the former Bremen forward, and since then Union have yet to win a game.

Awoniyi has also yet to score, but even more telling is the fact that he is now shooting even below his low average: over the last three matches, he has managed a measly five shots: 1.67 per match.

The good news is that, fundamentally, Awoniyi has not become a worse player overnight. The not-so-good news is that, with the transfer window now closed and his supply lines now limited, his fortunes in front of goal are unlikely to improve.