When Timo Werner ran onto a well-weighted ball over the top from Trevoh Chalobah in the second-half of Chelsea’s Premier League opener against Crystal Palace on Saturday, the majority of eyes at Stamford Bridge lit up.
A near-capacity crowd was hopeful as the German looked up and braced himself to strike the ball beyond Vicente Guaita. What followed, however, broadly summed up the forward’s time in West London.
In what thoroughly confused observers, the former RB Leipzig attacker shot badly wide with a scuffed effort that could be mistaken as an attempt to play in any teammate making a run into the penalty area.
Understandably, the criticism of the German commenced. Make no mistake, the effort wasn’t an easy chance to put away, but it was the striker’s execution that elicited the opprobrium. For many, it was confirmation of the fears that grew throughout his debut Premier League season in which the forward’s struggles in front of goal was beyond evident.
Werner’s raw and underlying numbers from 2020/21 make for bleak reading. Six league goals in 29 starts (35 appearances in total) and 12 in 52 in all competitions wasn’t what Chelsea signed up for.
The fact Jorginho, scorer of seven penalties, was the Blues’ top scorer demonstrated the club’s malaise in front of goal and the reluctance to utilise Tammy Abraham, a purer finisher than the ex-Leipzig star, particularly after Thomas Tuchel took the reins was at times frustrating.
18 big chances missed — only four players in the entire league had higher — highlighted the 25-year-old’s struggles to score while his expected goals underperformance — six goals from 11.9xG — was the worst in the whole division.
Nonetheless, the issues in front of goal were not wholly down to Werner, but a broader bugbear regarding the team’s attackers. Kai Havertz’s xG underperformance was among the worst in the league, as was Christian Pulisic’s who didn’t pull up trees either.
Thus, the upshot of these challenges meant Chelsea were the only side in the top half of last season that underperformed their expected points.
The table above bares the Blues’ struggles: a side that should have possibly ended the campaign comfortably in second place had to battle hard to secure a fourth-place finish on the final day.
While the analysis is far from an exact science, there’s definitely credence to any claim that the European Champions could and should have ended higher in the table if they took more of their chances last term—and somewhat in 2019/20 under Frank Lampard where a third-place finish would’ve been a fairer reflection of their performances.
Therefore, on the one hand, it’s hard to wonder how much of an impact Romelu Lukaku makes in the team if the rest of Chelsea’s attackers continue to underwhelm.
The superstar arrival from Inter Milan packs a punch and ought to significantly boost a terribly inconsistent attack that has flattered to deceive in recent years. Werner was brought in to improve this flaw, but a disappointing debut season suggested he can’t be the consistent focal point of attack the five-time PL champions require.
In addition to his 24 Serie A goals and 11 assists in 20/21, Lukaku ranked ninth for volume of shot-creating actions (defined as passes, dribbles and fouls drawn leading to a shot) in the whole season and was top in the whole competition for goal-creating actions. Admittedly, he does fall to 34th and seventh respectively for SCAs and GCAs per 90, but his talismanic presence under Antonio Conte was undeniable.
In a sense, this is a necessity for this Chelsea side, aside from the obvious need for someone to put the ball in the back of the net consistently. There’s a feeling that nearly every attacker at Cobham benefits from the Belgium striker’s return and Werner is no different, despite supporters’ continued irritation.
Tuchel has unequivocally stated how badly his team wanted a player of Lukaku’s profile and their underperforming German could play his part in the Blues’ ambition to hunt their rivals in the title race.
You’re inclined to give the 25-year-old another season to prove his worth, regardless of the obvious disappointment of last season. Interestingly, the former Stuttgart frontman outdid his expected goals to varying degrees in his final two seasons in the Bundesliga, scoring 16 (2018/19) and 28 (19/20) league goals from 14.8xG and 22.4 xG respectively.
Usually — if you’re not named Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo and Harry Kane (forwards who tend to consistently outdo their xG to varying degrees) — there is expected to be a mean reversion sooner or later and, perhaps, 20/21 represented Werner’s plunge.
More often than not, that dip precedes another rise in output, so it wouldn’t be out of place to expect an increase in output—although many are suggesting he’d get reduced minutes this season.
Having scored 21, 13, 16 and 28 domestic goals in four years on the trot before leaving Leipzig, the German has demonstrated an inclination to, by and large, score goals consistently, a facet lacking in the majority of Chelsea’s attackers.
Christian Pulisic’s intermittent injuries and, for lack of a better word, misuse by Tuchel means he may never hit high goalscoring numbers, Callum Hudson-Odoi is a creative presence from out wide but still blows hot and cold, Hakim Ziyech is a creator rather than marksman and Mason Mount isn’t expected to be a consistent goal scorer.
Havertz is an interesting prospect, owing to his profile and composure in front of goal. He’d netted 29 Bundesliga goals in his final two campaigns at Bayer Leverkusen but struggled for consistency in his debut PL season for varying reasons. The young attacker is also tipped to be a beneficiary of Lukaku’s arrival.
It would also be remiss to downplay the impact of the pandemic as well as a short turnaround between 19/20 and 20/21 which made integrating last term’s newcomers doubly complicated.
While Werner’s in-game flaws — particularly his clumsy technique in possession, link-up and combination play and in front of goal — may never disappear, double figures in goals in multiple seasons in Germany demonstrate why last year’s big-money signing can’t be discarded.
The 25-year-old isn’t going to be jettisoned after what could, after all, turn out to be just one bad season in front of goal and the downplaying of his other contributions to the side are rather insincere. Admittedly, though, he was brought in to score goals and the absence of that has rankled.
Maybe last year isn’t a one-off, but not giving the German this season to right the perceived wrongs of an underwhelming debut season will be tremendously rash.
---
Seye Omidiora is a passionate football writer and pundit whose deep appreciation for the beautiful game exceeds the usual. He is currently a columnist for Goal Africa and has previously written for Vital Football UK, IBCity Info and Opera News.
-----
Pulse Contributors is an initiative to highlight diverse journalistic voices. Pulse Contributors do not represent the company Pulse and contribute on their own behalf.