The opening matchday of the 2021 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) has come to an end, and so far much of the focus is on the obvious: the paucity of goals.
Here, however, are a couple of interesting tactical points that have jumped out after the conclusion of the opening group matches in Cameroon.
The reluctant goalkeeper
Necessity, they say, is the mother of invention. Which is fair enough if you are Mohamed Kamara – a goalkeeper who does not really want to, you know, keep the goal.
As any goalkeeper will tell you, it is a quite thankless, lonely role with a whole lot riding on it. One mistake could prove terminal for your team’s chances of success. Which makes Kamara’s high-wire, YOLO performance against reigning champions Algeria all the more remarkable, and all the braver.
Until, of course, one realises the fact that – and there is no nice way to put this – the East End Lions goalkeeper is not a very good goalkeeper in the classical sense of the word (and role), especially in one-on-one situations. On his line, he is almost fidgety, lacking the composure to wait on the ball striker before committing. Hyperactivity is far from a desirable trait for the position, and to make matters worse with Kamara he is also one of those goalkeepers who somehow make themselves smaller with their stance.
You know what hyperactivity does support though? Sweeping.
Sierra Leone actually displayed quite a bit of bravery with the height of their defensive line, but it required their goalkeeper to assume a good starting position. Kamara took that imperative a little too far at times, often starting on the edge of his penalty area and making a ridiculous number of headed and sliding clearances.
In a way, it was a lesson in knowing one’s abilities. What do you do when you know you are not a good goalkeeper in a traditional sense? Simple: prevent traditional goalkeeping scenarios from arising in the first place.
Rumours of Algeria’s demise are greatly exaggerated
Hearing people talk, one would be forgiven for thinking Algeria’s goalless draw with Sierra Leone amounted to an abdication of their status as reigning champions.
Sure, Les Fennecs were disappointing in their inability to put their far less illustrious opponents to the sword in the manner many expected before kick-off. And yes, John Keister’s side actually created a number of credible openings, especially in the game’s opening half.
However, the analysis of Algeria as overhyped ignores significant context. A patched-up midfield, for one – both Ramiz Zerrouki and Ismael Bennacer were missing on the day on account of injury and suspension respectively; then the fact that Abdelkader Bedrane got the nod in defence in place of the superior, wilier Djamel Benlamri, and subsequently got the sort of physical examination – by the bruising Alhaji Kamara – that the former Lyon man would have relished had he been fully fit to start the game (he would come off the bench in the second half).
There is also the reality of what did happen on the pitch. In spite of the caveats around selection and their sluggish start to proceedings, Algeria created a number of chances to win the game, and generally used the ball better than any other team in the competition so far, both in build-up and in terms of getting it forward quickly. No team managed more 10+ pass sequences culminating in a shot or touch in the penalty box than their five, and only Senegal totaled more direct attacks (per Opta).
Their hybrid between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3 remains alive and well, and forced Sierra Leone farther back as the game progressed. Had substitutes Said Benrahma, Baghdad Bounedjah and Sofiane Bendebka displayed a little more composure, they could very easily have won the game.
Disappointing result? Absolutely. Coach Belmadi would be the last person to brook any other reading. However, there is far more evidence to suggest this was a blip, as opposed to something truly terminal.
Gratuitous Cameroon shape-shifting
For the spectacle of AFCON, as well as for fan engagement, it was necessary for Cameroon to start off on the proper note.
Good thing for them, then, that opponents Burkina Faso were feeling charitable. After taking the lead, the Stallions contrived to give away two penalties for wild challenges inside their own penalty area. It was a bizarre performance at the back for Kamou Malo’s side, curiously lacking in discipline and composure. Some of that was to do with the home side’s aggressive, well-coordinated pressing (Cameroon only allowed 8.1 passes for every defensive action, the fourth-best tally in the competition so far, per Opta), which seemed to throw the Burkinabes off completely, forcing panicked clearances time and again.
So, kudos to coach Toni Conceicao for that at least. The other notable aspect of his tactical approach was rather less successful, however.
The Indomitable Lions came out in a system that shifted between a 3-5-2 in possession and a 4-1-4-1 out of it. Depending on what side the ball was on, the far-side full-back would push up extremely high, while the near-sided one would tuck in to form a back three. The reasoning for this complicated system seemed to be getting Lyon’s Karl Toko Ekambi into a more central role to get the best out of him (his international performances have been rather underwhelming, for the most part) while maintaining a back four and a midfield three.
It did not work. Partly because Toko Ekambi’s performance did little to justify it, but also because the situational wing-backs – Collins Fai, Nouhou Tolo and Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu – were all, to varying degrees, ineffectual in the final third. The Young Boys man in particular struggled to impact the game, cutting an almost lethargic figure with the ball at his feet.
The central conceit with a 3-5-2 in possession is using extremely high wing-backs as outlets for attacking play and chance creation, and so for the most part, Cameroon’s work on the ball lacked imagination.
Aliou Cisse betrays tactical weakness (again)
The Teranga Lions’ boss is widely respected for his legendary international playing career, and has been in his current role since 2015. As such, there is plenty of sympathy for his desire to bring a first-ever AFCON title to Senegal.
The evidence for that eventuality remains thin on the ground, however. While they got to the Final last time out, only edged out via a deflected goal, Cisse’s general approach to the deployment of his considerable talent base has left a lot to be desired. If Monday’s win over Zimbabwe is anything to go by, things do not seem to be getting any better.
His 4-4-2 system is incredibly basic, and so for large periods Senegal were handily outplayed by Zimbabwe, especially in the middle of the park where Norman Mapeza's side had a 3v2 advantage. Their route forward was, therefore, fairly obvious: if they could escape the first line of pressure, Senegal would need to pull in the near-side winger to help in the centre, and this would open up the flank to switch the play to an unmarked wide player.
The key, though, was bravery. And this is where Cisse’s abundance of talent (and the crippling effect that can have on opponents) comes into play. It takes a lot of composure to determinedly play out against such stars as Sadio Mane and Boulaye Dia; when the risk is that high, the temptation is to play on the flanks as soon as possible in the first phase, allowing Senegal time and an angle to close off the centre.
When Zimbabwe showed the bravery to exploit the middle though, they created trouble for their more illustrious opponents.
There are two obvious questions. The first is: why did Cisse do nothing at all to address this? The second is: if Zimbabwe, shorn of some of their best players, could exploit the Teranga Lions' shape, what will happen against much stronger opponents? There will not always be a 97th-minute penalty to convert.
Low-scoring tournament is not necessarily an indictment of attacking quality
As a headline, ‘12 goals in 12 matches’ is a pretty damning indictment of the football that AFCON 2021 has thrown up.
While it is in keeping with the trend in international football in general, and this tournament more specifically, it is still remarkably lower; on course to eclipse even the reviled 2002 edition.
A lot of factors have been put forward by way of explanation. Sure enough, allowing European clubs to hold on to players until less than a week to kick-off cannot have helped with cohesion on the training ground, and neither has the reality of a global pandemic depriving teams of important players at crucial points.
However, a theory that should probably have more traction than it currently does: this is the tournament of the goalkeeper.
Two of the tournament’s Man of the Match awards have so far gone to goalkeepers, with Sierra Leone’s Kamara and Mali’s Ibrahim Mounkoro claiming the plaudits in important results for their respective countries.
Beyond them though, the numbers suggest performances between the sticks have played a much bigger role in keeping scorelines low.
On average, 29 per cent of total shots on target are goals historically. In 12 matches to this point, we have witnessed 74 shots on target: 51 of them have been saved – 69%, which is roughly the average for an (upper) mid-table Premier League goalkeeper; so much for the unreliable African goalkeeper trope – and only 12 have found the back of the net.
Going by the average rate, we should have gotten at least nine more goals than we have by this point. Now, 21 goals would still only make out to 1.75 per game, but it would be a marked improvement nonetheless.
If you like Expected Goals (xG) as a metric, it tells the story rather aptly: over the course of the tournament, players have racked up a total xG of 27.16. Compare that to the actual number of goals scored.
Exactly.