What are Tinubu’s biggest obstacles to victory?

When politicians are being scrutinised to the very tiniest detail, especially those eyeing the highest office in the land, it’s to ensure that the worst of them don’t end up in positions of authority. This perhaps justifies why the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, has been the subject of intense scrutiny by Nigerians, or more accurately, opposition parties.

Since he announced his intention to run for president in January 2021, Tinubu has had his reputation battered by several allegations which still didn’t stop him from winning his party’s ticket.

Having scaled that primary hurdle in a distinctive manner, Tinubu has done little to address most of the allegations against him, except in some few instances where his media aides have either tried to explain them away or just deny them completely. 

Now, with election day just around the corner, all these controversies still hover above the APC candidate and whether they constitute a dent in his chances is a question that will be answered only after the results are announced.

These are the most prominent obstacles that could prevent Tinubu from achieving his lifelong ambition on February 25. 

Alleged drug conviction

This is a three-decade-old matter that has come back to haunt the APC candidate. Although no evidence to say explicitly that Tinubu was a drug convict, what is not in dispute is the fact he was investigated on suspicion of being a money courier for a drug ring.

Acting on suspicions that some narcotics proceeds had been wired through accounts linked to Tinubu at First Heritage Bank and Citi-Bank in the U.S., the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) agent, Kevin Moss, obtained a court order to freeze those accounts.

But, after investigations, Moss couldn’t bring charges against him, even though he stated in his final report that there were enough reasons to believe the seized monies were drug proceeds.

On October 4, 1993, Tinubu and the U.S. authorities reached an agreement that allowed

him to walk free without being taken to trial, but he had to forfeit $460,000, which raised concerns that the case against him was strong.

Age and health controversies

Although Tinubu is officially 70 years old, many critics believe he’s older than his birth certificate suggests and many reasons have been adduced for this. Majorly, references have been made to his increasing frailty which in fairness is a hallmark of old age.

Also, there are manifest signs of age-related diseases which may lend credence to suggestions that he may be older than he wants people to believe.

Similarly, his tendencies to commit awful gaffes, coupled with his penchant for making some hard-to-comprehend remarks have been linked to signs of health challenges.

Alleged certificate forgery and identity theft

This is one allegation that dates back to his time as the governor of Lagos State. The matter first came to the public when the late human rights activist, Gani Fawehinmi, having noticed some inconsistencies in the school certificates Tinubu submitted to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in 1999, petitioned the Lagos State House of Assembly.

An ad-hoc committee set up by the state assembly was able to establish an act of perjury against Tinubu after he admitted the educational qualifications he submitted to INEC were incorrect. But, the committee exonerated him on the grounds that the offence was unintentionally committed. Fawehinmi pursued the matter up to Supreme Court where it was held that Tinubu can’t be prosecuted by the police.

A recent documentary about his life, produced by his camp, used a picture of the former governor of Cross River state, Donald Duke, as a 12-year-old boy to represent Tinubu in his early years, which fuelled debates about alleged identity theft.

Heritage controversy

There is an unending debate about Tinubu's ancestry as some Nigerians are not convinced he’s from Lagos State as he claims.

One factor that has given this doubt life is the absence of records of Tinubu’s existence before he travelled to the U.S. in the 1970s. To date, nobody has publicly identified as his childhood friend or classmate in primary and/or secondary schools, even though he said he was admitted into Government College, Ibadan but had to drop out due to poverty.

Also, despite bearing a surname considered of high repute by indigent Lagosians, critics have alleged that Tinubu’s original ancestors are from Iragbiji, a town in Boripe Local Government Area, Osun State.

In the same vein, it was said that his real name is Amoda Ogunlere or Ahmed Magaji, depending on which version you want to believe. 

Corruption allegations

In an earlier article, we detailed how Tinubu made his money and related controversies about his wealth. The candidate has severally been accused of enriching himself with an inordinate amount of money drawn from public accounts. This is unsurprising, considering he governed Nigeria’s richest state for eight years.  

Most of the allegations are related to the finances of Lagos State, where he has continued to call the political shots since his exit from government in 2007. It's believed that a good percentage of revenues generated by the state ends up in companies whose ownership has been traced to Tinubu. The prime example is Alpha Beta Consulting, a firm he awarded a contract in 2002 to collect tax on behalf of the state government. 

Successive administrations have retained the services of the firm, with the justification that it's helping the state to increase its Internally Generated Revenue (IGR). However, many critics have said the 10% commission the company deducts is way too exorbitant and against global best practices. Also, a former Managing Director of Alpha Beta, Dapo Apara, once accused Tinubu of illegal diversion of the company's money but the matter has since been settled out of court.

Muslim-Muslim ticket

This is a self-inflicted controversy Tinubu brought upon himself when he decided to pick the former Borno State governor, Kashim Shettima, as his running mate. The decision was received with lots of criticism, particularly from the Christian community.

Nigeria is divided into Christian-dominated south and Muslim-dominated north, and when Tinubu, a southern Muslim, emerged as a candidate, the question was whether he would pick his running mate from the Christian minority section in the north. He picked a fellow Muslim and Nigerians will have to decide at the polls on February 25 if that’s something that can fly in such a diverse country.

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