What exit of Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger from ECOWAS means for Nigerians

On Sunday, January 28, 2024, the military governments of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger jointly announced their exit from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

The regional body, founded in 1975, was established to provide regional economic cooperation among its 15 member states, but the three military-ruled nations think it’s high time they freed themselves from the West African bloc.

According to them, the bloc has not offered any substantial support in their fight against insurgents and terrorists who have killed thousands of their citizens and displaced millions.

Meanwhile, ECOWAS has, in its reaction to the development, rejected the withdrawal of the three countries. The bloc said there’s been no official communication from the military leaders of the seceding nations.

Also, Nigeria, the ECOWAS chair, has through its Ministry of Foreign Affairs, expressed its concerns about the development.

In a statement released on Monday, January 29, 2024, the Federal Government of Nigeria condemned the juntas’ decision to withdraw from the bloc and at the same time offered to engage them in diplomatic resolution talks.

The position and power Nigeria wields as the bloc’s political and economic heavyweight requires it to protect the bloc and ensure the move by the seceding countries does not snowball into a political and economic disintegration of West Africa.

For decades, Nigeria has been the big brother helping the bloc to maintain, sustain and enhance the political and economic cooperation among member states, and here’s another ECOWAS challenge the most populous nation in Africa has to stand up to.

Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger may be poor, landlocked countries, but if their secession move is carried through, it’ll undoubtedly disrupt the region’s trade and services flow. After all, the bloc allows visa-free travel and trade among its 15 members.

With the economy of the three countries accounting for just 8% of the bloc’s gross domestic product, it appears if they succeed in withdrawing from ECOWAS, they would condemn themselves to economic isolation, but then again, there is no way their decision — good or bad — won’t affect their neighbours.

One of the three junta-led countries shares 1,500 km of land border with Nigeria, with years of ethnic, religious and inter-marital relationships with Nigerians.

According to Olu Onemola, a public affairs analyst and former Special Assistant at the Nigerian National Assembly, the implications of their exit, particularly with Niger, are primarily security and economic.

Onemola believes the economic sanctions the ECOWAS already placed on the military dictators in Niger — as part of efforts to restore democracy in the country — may need to be reassessed.

To achieve this, he submitted that the ECOWAS’ efforts should be more targeted at the junta leaders rather than blanket sanctions that could predispose the citizens of the countries to economic hardship.

The import of this is to ensure the sanction imposed on the country does not affect the citizens in a way that would prompt humanitarian crises the brunt of which Nigeria would have to bear as a result of the open and porous borders it shares with Niger.

“While the announcement to leave ECOWAS might be more symbolic than impactful due to existing sanctions, it is also crucial to assess the current effectiveness of the sanctions in weakening the juntas’ grip on power.

“Moving forward, experts like the International Crisis Group recommend refocusing sanctions on the junta leaders, rather than broad-based measures that harm ordinary citizens. This targeted approach could prove more effective in achieving desired outcomes,” Onemola submitted.

With the way things currently stand between ECOWAS and Niger, there’s no doubt the sanctions implemented by Nigeria due to its position and proximity to Niger to restore democratic order in the country have ostensibly failed to achieve desired results.

It’s against this backdrop that Onemola called for a more effective approach in dealing with Niger because if the junta actions go without consequences, military forces in other ECOWAS countries could see the bloc’s sanctions as empty threats — and take advantage of it.

“Overall, we also need to consider that if care is not taken, the current approach may just empower other military forces in the region — due to the perceived lack of consequences.

“Hence, Nigeria and ECOWAS must continue to maintain their bottom line, which involves pushing for a speedy return to democratic values and constitutional order, while also maintaining continued engagement with these three countries through regular diplomatic channels — which can be more effective in cases like this,” he said.

In the opinion of Dr Sulaimon Hassan, an international relations expert and journalism lecturer at Lagos State University (LASU), Nigeria needs to court a strong relationship with the seceding countries to be able to address the security crisis bedevilling the Northern region.

He explained that most of the security issues in Northern Nigeria are a spillover of the crisis in Chad, Niger and Mali.

“Even though they are poor countries, Nigeria still needs them because many Northern states are currently engulfed in banditry and kidnapping, and one of these countries is Nigeria’s neighbour.

“Nigeria needs to have a good relationship with them to enable the Federal Government to work with them in curtailing insecurity and address the influx of bandits from Niger and Chad,” Hassan said.

The lecturer believes if Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso succeed in pulling themselves out of ECOWAS, insecurity in Nigeria will worsen.