The recent political turmoil in Niger Republic, triggered by a military coup that ousted President Mohamed Bazoum, has drawn the attention of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
In response to this crisis, ECOWAS has issued a directive to its military standby force to restore constitutional order in Niger. This move brings to question the Nigerien military's strength and its ability to withstand ECOWAS' efforts to restore democratic governance in the country.
ECOWAS is made up of 16 member countries, however Niger Republic, Mali, Chad, Burkina Faso have shown no backing for ECOWAS' new directive. Mali and Burkina Faso have openly declared support for Niger if ECOWAS intrudes in the country's internal affairs.
Hence, ECOWAS military would be made up of a sluster of soldiers from Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Guinea Bissau, Burundi, Cote d’Ivoire, Mauritania, Ghana, Senegal, Benin Republic, Togo, The Gambia and Liberia.
Strength of Niger's military
According to the The Global Firepower Index (GFP), the Niger ranks 25th strongest African military power. to ECOWAS' mandate will undoubtedly reveal its strengths and weaknesses. To assess the ability of Niger's military to withstand ECOWAS' efforts, several key factors need to be considered:
1. Historical context: The Nigerien military has a history of intervening in politics. Past coups and military involvement in governance suggest a certain level of organisational cohesion and strategic capabilities within the military ranks.
2. Counterterrorism experience: Niger has been a crucial player in the regional fight against terrorist groups such as Boko Haram and ISWAP. Its military's experience in counterterrorism operations demonstrates a degree of tactical proficiency and adaptability.
3. International peacekeeping: Niger has contributed troops to various international peacekeeping missions, showcasing its willingness to collaborate and engage in multilateral efforts to maintain stability.
4. Regional collaboration: As a member of the G5 Sahel Joint Force, Niger has demonstrated its commitment to regional cooperation in addressing security challenges. This suggests a level of integration and coordination among its armed forces.
5. Leadership and morale: The coup leaders, including General Abdourahmane Tiani, will play a pivotal role in determining the military's response to ECOWAS' mandate. The loyalty of the military personnel to the junta's leadership will be a significant factor.
Challenges ahead
While the Nigerien military possesses certain strengths, it also faces notable challenges that could impact its ability to withstand ECOWAS' restoration efforts:
1. Internal divisions: The military might not be uniformly supportive of the coup, and internal divisions could hinder a cohesive response.
2. Economic and logistical constraints: The military's capacity to sustain operations over an extended period could be limited due to resource constraints and logistical challenges.
3. International pressure: ECOWAS' collective stance, along with the involvement of the African Union and partner countries, could exert significant diplomatic and political pressure on the coup leaders and their military backers.
Realistically, the collation of some of the strongest West African military powers under ECOWAS may be difficult to resist by Niger and their two (2) allies.