From 2023 to 2027, Nigeria, Algeria, and Egypt are anticipated to control the African natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply market, as the use of fossil fuel becomes unpopular globally. Data from the African Energy Chamber's August 2023 State of African Energy report support this. The analysis estimates that Africa's natural gas supply will be at 25.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2023, an increase of 1% from 2022.
Meanwhile, long-term supply potential is predicted to increase by 7% to 27.4 Bcf/d by 2025, and by close to 30% to 32.8 Bcf/d, and by almost 65% to 41.6 Bcf/d by 2035, over the 2023 levels, in line with worldwide potential.
Long-term commercial flows from Africa are also predicted to remain relatively stable around 27-28 Bcf/d for the duration of this decade and the next before beginning to fall.
The report reads in part, “Algeria, Egypt, and Nigeria are expected to drive the majority of the natural gas supply with an average of 80% of the total African gas coming from these three countries. Individually, the short-term output of these three countries is estimated to stay relatively flat.”
“Algeria is expected to see a growth from 10 Bcf/d in 2023 to 11 Bcf/d by 2027; Egypt is expected to stay flat at 6.25 Bcf/d and Nigeria is expected to fluctuate marginally between 4.5 Bcf/d and 5.5 Bcf/d.”
The report also mentions other African countries that can become major players in the natural gas market, albeit, these countries possess very minimal potential for short-term results. The report states, “the mega natural gas projects offshore Senegal – Mauritania, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Ethiopia are expected to come online much later, and hence, have no impact on the short-term natural gas supply from Africa.”
“Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Mozambique, Mauritania, Cameroon, and Congo continue to flow LNG exports through the period with their Soyo LNG plant, Bioko LNG plant, Coral FLNG, Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) FLNG, Golar FLNG, and Marine XII FLNG, respectively. While Nigeria and Algeria LNG projects are operated by their respective national oil companies (NOCs) – NNPC and Sonatrach respectively,” the report adds.
Future potential and, more crucially, growth, are mostly driven by huge projects being run in nations like Mozambique, Tanzania, South Africa, and Mauritania-Senegal. The upstream fields that supply feedgas to the Soyo LNG facility are run or have majors as working interest partners in Angola as well.
The AEC study also emphasized that Africa has promised to put more effort into monetizing natural gas discoveries, assuring effective use of gas as a transition fuel and reducing emissions from widespread gas flaring. However, it pointed out that Nigeria's "Decade of Gas" initiative, which was introduced in March 2021, has continued to be implemented at a glacial pace.