kayode adebiyi

News Agency Of Nigeria

<h2>It is often said that the worst democracy is far better than the best dictatorship.</h2>

One does not have to look farther than the northern border of Nigeria to a country with which it shares its longest land border to confirm this truism.

Since the government of President Mohamed Bazoum was toppled in a military coup led by Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani in July 2023 the country has seen a significant deterioration in both economic and security conditions.

This is despite initial claims by the coup leaders that they forcefully took over power to improve the country’s lot.

International relations experts say, despite what the military would have the outside world believe, Niger’s economy has been severely impacted by the military takeover.

The junta’s actions, including cutting ties with key international partners, have led to economic isolation.

Sanctions imposed by ECOWAS, led by Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu, and other international actors have compounded these issues, resulting in higher prices of basic goods and widespread economic hardship among the population.

The closure of borders and the cessation of aid have also hit the country hard, with many people struggling to afford necessities like food, according to international donor agencies.

A recent African Development Bank (AfDB) report suggests that economic activities slowed to 2.5 per cent in 2023.

This is as the political regime changed and economic and financial sanctions were imposed by ECOWAS and the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAeMU).

The freezing of external funding by the country’s main technical and financial partners has also taken a heavy toll on its economy.

AfDB, quoting the National Institute of Statistics, said sanctions increased the estimated incidence of poverty by 1.9 percentage points to 43.9 per cent at the end of 2023.

AfDB also reported that food insecurity and the precarious health situation before the political change have worsened.

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported a surge in humanitarian needs in Niger after the coup.

OCHA said an additional 600,000 people required humanitarian assistance in 2023, to an estimated total of some 4.3 million people. It projected that extreme poverty is expected to reach 52 per cent.

But Tchiani and his cohorts would rather make their capture look like a populist military government.

In terms of security, the situation has not improved under the junta.

Niger, which previously managed to keep insurgency and militant activities at bay under former President Bazoum, is now facing increased instability.

Just like in the economic situation, the junta’s strained relations with former security partners, such as France and the U.S., have led to the withdrawal of foreign troops and support.

The situation has left the country more vulnerable to violent extremism and the activities of militants.

Despite faring comparatively better against Burkina Faso and Mali in terms of fatalities, Niger is still suffering from violence and internal turmoil, with over 370,000 internally displaced people, primarily consisting of women and children.

This insecurity has only worsened the living conditions for many Nigeriens, who are now caught between economic hardship and rising violence.

“One key rationale the military provided for the taking power last year was the worsening security in the country.

“However, violence has persisted and escalated, calling into question the effectiveness of military operations.

“Oversight of military spending has also been curtailed,” Transparency International Defence and Security said in a report published on Aug. 8, 2024.

According to Human Rights Watch’s World Report 2024, since the coup, freedom of expression has been curtailed and independent journalists have faced arrests, threats, and harassment.

Political space shrank, with the junta banning the activities of all political parties and arresting several members of the ousted government and its supporters.

Niger has also continued to battle armed groups, including the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and the rival Al-Qaeda-linked Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimeen, JNIM).

Also, Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) are very active in its western and southeastern regions.

After the coup, supporters of the military government also referred to as the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (Conseil national pour la sauvegarde de la patrie, CNSP) organised vigilante committees.

The group has reportedly committed several acts of violence against members of Bazoum’s party, the Nigerien Party for Democracy and Socialism (Parti Nigérien pour la Démocratie et le Socialisme, PNDS-Tarayya).

CNSP supporters are believed to have perpetrated the violence as a result of political tensions over a possible ECOWAS military intervention.

Human Rights Watch documented specific situations where supporters of the junta ransacked and set fire to the PNDS headquarters in the capital, Niamey.

They also reportedly burnt scores of vehicles and physically assaulted several PNDS members who had gathered at the party’s headquarters for a meeting.

The security forces did not take adequate measures to prevent the violence.

According to reports, youth vigilantes supporting the CNSP also sexually assaulted several women during unlawful patrols at Niamey’s main roundabouts.

According to the police and the Nigerien League for Women’s Rights, at least four of the victims filed complaints with the Nigerian police against their abusers.

However, none of the perpetrators has been charged with those offences.

Evidence suggests that General Tchiani and his government have resorted to propaganda to maintain their grip on power.

The junta has restricted media freedom, arrested journalists, and cracked down on dissent, which are common tactics used by regimes under pressure.

This crackdown on free speech and the manipulation of information indicates a government that is increasingly desperate to control the narrative and suppress any opposition.

Typical of a dictatorship, the junta has restricted freedom of expression and shut down media. Local and international journalists have been physically attacked, threatened, verbally harassed, and harassed online.

The CNSP indefinitely suspended local retransmissions of international news broadcasters Radio France Internationale (RFI) and France 24, violating the right to free and independent information.

The blocking created an information gap, as local media outlets lost access to reliable and independent international news sources.

People have been arrested for accusations as flimsy as “production and dissemination of data likely to disturb public order” under the military regime.

Evidence also suggests that the country’s level of corruption has surged under the military.

Transparency International believes that the adopted Ordinance 2024-05 of February 23, 2024, is a huge step backwards in terms of good governance in the security sector.

It said the ordinance allows for even more opaque practices in defence budget planning and management.

“The new decree dictates that public procurement and public accounting expenses related to the acquisition of equipment, materials, and supplies, as well as the performance of works or services intended for the Defense and Security Forces (FDS) are exempt from regular oversight regulations.

“Moreover, defence expenses are exempt from taxes, duties, and fees during the transition period. Unfortunately, opaque practices have become the norm when it comes to Niger’s defence governance.”

An analysis of media content strongly reveals that the situation in Niger has worsened since the junta took power, both economically and in terms of security.

Gen. Tchiani’s government only appears to be using propaganda to mask its failures, but the deteriorating conditions suggest that these efforts may not be sustainable in the long term.

As researcher Denitsa Zhelyazkova wrote, “Turning away from democracy rarely leads to peace and stability.” Niger presents a classic case in point.

Niger Junta rebuffs all diplomatic missions so far [Reuters]

The freezing of external funding by the country’s main technical and financial partners has also taken a heavy toll on its economy.

Niger Republic junta thriving on propaganda but for how long?

<h2>Contrary to the narrative of John Grisham’s fictional thriller, The Racketeer, this was a real-life, long-overdue gesture of genuine friendship and partnership, a testament to the shared interest in combating transborder crimes that pose a significant global threat.</h2>

The visit of one of the longest-serving Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) directors, Mr. Christopher Wray, to Nigeria last week signalled a new era in cooperation between Nigeria and the United States.

With the increase in the growth and sophistication of trans-border crimes and criminal networks in such crimes as cybercrimes, online fraud, trafficking in illicit drugs and money laundering and illicit transactions, government agencies across the world are working closer for solutions.

Wray’s historic visit to Nigeria, marked by his courtesy calls on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the National Security Adviser Malam Nuhu Ribadu, was a significant milestone.

This was not only his first visit to Africa in his seven years as FBI director but also a testament to the growing importance of Nigeria in the global fight against trans-border crimes.

Equally significant was Wray’s inaugural visit to the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), where he held a crucial meeting with the Chairman, Mr. Ola Olukoyede.

This meeting, the first of its kind, underscored the importance of international cooperation in combating transborder crimes and the confidence in the EFCC’s renewed anti-corruption efforts under Olukoyede’s leadership.

There are perhaps a dozen anti-corruption agencies in Africa, notable among them the EFCC, the South African Police Service (SAPS) and the Hawks; the Kenyan Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission (EACC); the Ghanaian Economic and Organised Crime Office (EOCO); and the Sierra Leonean Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC), among others. Wray, however, visited only two – the EFCC and the EACC.

Wray’s visit also aims to strengthen the partnership between the FBI and the EFCC. In his remark during the visit, Wray said: “We have had a relationship over the years, and this is a reflection of how stronger than ever we are looking forward to taking our partnership to higher and higher levels in tackling threats that affect the people of Nigeria and the people of the United States.”

In response, Olukoyede said in the fight against the “bad guys” and trans-border crimes, the Commission was “willing to continue and develop ideas that would be of mutual benefit to both agencies and ensure that the issue of cybercrime will take utmost priority in our scale of preference and also ensure that sextortion that has become a major challenge to us is taken very seriously.”

Wray’s visit takes on a special meaning in the context of statistics showing that apart from rising cybercrimes, illicit drugs and small arms, illicit financial flows also cost Africa around 88.6 billion dollars yearly.

Security analysts hope a deeper collaboration between the FBI and the EFCC will improve capacity building and intelligence sharing.

This genuine collaboration among the two agencies will mean that the Malcolm Bannisters of this world, the fictional character in Grisham’s book, will have a hard time in the future.

President Bola Tinubu and FBO Director, Christopher Asher Wray [Presidency]

Security analysts hope a deeper collaboration between the FBI and the EFCC will improve capacity building and intelligence sharing.

Why FBI Director Gray’s visit to Nigeria matters

<h2>The Director-General of the Debt Management Office (DMO), Patience Oniha, gave the hint at the public presentation of the 2023 budget.</h2>

“There are a lot of discussions on the Ways and Means; in addition to the significant cost saving in loan service we would get by securitising it.

“There is an element of transparency in the sense that it is now reflected in the public debt stock.

“Once it is passed by the National Assembly, it means we will be seeing that figure included in the public debt. You will see a significant increase in public debt to N77trillion,“ she said.

Ways and Means Advances (WMA) are temporary loan facilities issued by an apex bank to the central and state governments to finance shortfalls in the government’s budget.

On Jan. 3, President Buhari appealed to the Senate to reconsider his request to restructure the N22.7trillion WMAs, some days after an initial request was rejected.

Sensing the mixed reactions the DG, DMO’s comment generated, the office released a statement to clarify her position.

The statement explained that the N77trillion figure was arrived at by using the actual public debt stock of N44trillion as of Sept. 30, 2022, and taking into account “a number of ongoing activities”.

The DMO further stated that the debt that would be added to the public debt data in 2023 included the N1trillion WMA to finance the supplementary budget already approved by the National Assembly.

However, the technicality of Nigeria’s public debt profile and the technical terms used to describe it do not matter much to the uninitiated; the person on the street who only worries about its sustainability.

According to the Minister of Finance, Zainab Ahmed, the Federal Government spent N5.24trillion on debt service alone between January and November 2022, out of its N12.87trillion total spending for the same period.

This is worrisome under any circumstance.

Adding to the heightened anxiety about Nigeria’s public debt is the World Bank’s projection that interest payments on the federal government’s borrowing from the Central Bank of Nigeria would gulp over 62 per cent of revenue by 2027.

Should citizens be worried by this data?

Stephen Onyeiwu, Professor of Economics at Allegheny College, USA, recently wrote that debt risk is about how much a country has borrowed and its ability to service its debt.

“Economists use two indicators to determine a country’s debt sustainability. The first is gross debt as a percentage of a country’s economy as measured by the gross domestic product (GDP).

“This is commonly referred to as the debt-to-GDP ratio.

“Another indicator of debt sustainability is the debt service ratio, which is the proportion of export earnings that is used to service debt, including principal and interest payments,” he said.

In September 2022, the DMO put Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio at 23 per cent. By the end of the year, experts argued that the ratio was around 35.2 per cent.

Also, the IMF has projected that Nigeria’s total debt-to-GDP ratio of public debt would rise steadily to 44.2 per cent by 2027.

If that happens, Nigeria would have exceeded its set debt-to-GDP ratio threshold of 40 per cent.

However, more alarming is Nigeria’s debt service ratio, which analysts, including those at Afrinvest, estimated at between 83 per cent and 90 per cent in 2022.

According to&nbsp;Onyeiwu, a healthy debt service ratio is below 15 per cent.

While it has become clear that revenues from petroleum alone cannot sustain growth and development in Nigeria, experts worry about the terms of servicing public debts and the purpose of borrowing in the first place.

However, the federal government often insists that it is borrowing mainly to finance critical infrastructure projects.

Indeed, borrowing is one of three major ways through which countries finance a variety of big projects, the others being through capital reserves and pay-as-you-go.

Careful and strategic borrowing allows the government to continue to renew infrastructure on a regular basis and add to it when necessary to accommodate growth while maintaining good fiscal health.

The danger, however, lies in when the government is borrowing to finance utility renewal projects and restructuring settlements because they reduce the capacity of the government to borrow for important projects and lead to defaulting.

The DMO insists that it continues to demonstrate good negotiation skills in dealing with the country’s debt matters with both internal and external creditors.

But analysts warn that Nigeria has to shore up its revenue base by curbing systemic corruption in the petroleum sector and expanding its non-oil revenue sources to reduce heavy reliance on borrowing.&nbsp;

Nigeria’s total public debt shoots up to N33.107trn – DMO. [proshareng]

Recently, many Nigerians were alarmed when news circulated that Nigeria’s public debt burden might hit N77trillion&nbsp;if a request to restructure the Ways and Means Advances (WMAs) was approved by the National Assembly.

How sustainable is Nigeria’s public debt?

<h2>Nigeria featured on the list of countries affected by the visa ban.</h2>

Others include: Uganda, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Cameroon, Nigeria, Liberia, Burundi, Republic of Guinea, Gambia, Togo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Senegal, Benin, Ivory Coast, Congo, Rwanda, Burkina Faso, Guinea Bissau, Comoros, and the Dominican Republic.

Concerning Nigeria, UAE authorities said all applications were on-hold until issues between the UAE government and the Nigerian government were resolved.

“All Dubai applications submitted are now rejected. It is general for Nigerians and approvals are on hold at the moment.

“Kindly advise your clients to resubmit C2=A0 applications when the issue is resolved between both governments,” the notice read in part.

Although this round of visa ban is not peculiar to Nigerian, analysts believe that it cannot be separated from the recent diplomatic standoff between the oil-rich Gulf state and Africa’s most populous country. The question remains: How will the conflict benefit both countries?

In August 2021, a viral message on Twitter showed how some Nigerians were held against their wish and maltreated at a Dubai airport, in spite of carrying valid travel documents.

The Nigerians in Diaspora Commission (NiDCOM), said it might not be unrelated with the violation of new visa rules by some Nigerians in the Dubai, prompting the government to evacuate over 500 citizens stranded in the UAE.

Indeed, some Nigerians have been suspected to be engaged in criminal activities, such as cybercrime. This has led to new visa rules, including age restriction and a visa regime that focused on family.

Also, to make its visa issuance process more stringent, the UAE now required applicants to provide a six-month statement of account.

However, experts the diplomatic row between both countries may transcend Nigerian travellers violating visa rules and misconducts.

In Dec. 2021, in an apparent diplomatic retaliation, the Nigerian government reduced the number of Emirates Airlines’ flight operations from 21 to one flight per week.

The UAE government had reduced local carrier, Air Peace, operations from three flights to one per week, and Emirates Airlines responded to Nigeria’s retaliation by halting its operations for few weeks.

In Aug. 2022, Emirates Airlines announced the suspension of all flight operations in Nigeria with effect from Sept. 1, in protest against what it described as its trapped funds.

The airline only resumed operations on Sept. 11, after the Central Bank of Nigeria released part of its trapped funds.

Again, on Nov. 3, 2022, Emirates announced that it was halting flights to and from Nigeria with effect from Sept. 29 over its $85 million blocked revenue “to mitigate against further losses moving forward”.

Minister of Aviation, Hadi Sirika, was furious in his response to the latest visa ban, saying: “every country would threaten Nigeria that they would not fly to Nigeria again, that they would not give Nigeria visa.

“Please, countries have been shut completely, and they did well. We are not afraid to be shut. It would make us do much better.

“It would make our schools and hospitals do better because necessity is the mother of invention. We would begin to go to our own hospitals and our schools.

“When you stop coming to Nigeria, it does not make any sense. When you stopped operating in Nigeria, a 200 million market, which you need, you do not have a case,” he said.

But analysts argue that, rather than tit for tat, an amicable and permanent diplomatic solution should be sought by both countries.

Tade Ogunjide, a travel agent with one of UAE’s trade partners, said the UAE and Nigeria should be mindful of their mutually-beneficial relationship.

“We are talking about an industry which moves over 1,000 Dubai-bound passengers daily. I don’t have data for other African countries, but the Nigerian aviation market in that route is crucial.

“There are many Nigerians who go about their legitimate businesses in Sharjah, Dubai and other parts of the UAE. It will be unfair of Nigeria and UAE to be insensitive to their situation.

“An outright and blanket visa ban, for any reason, is counterproductive for both countries in the long run,” he said.

For Amina Mohammed, a Nigerian student in Dubai, the row between Nigeria and the UAE is a source of discomfort for Nigerian students in the country.

“Nigeria has a vibrant and lawful student population here. There are so many challenges we face and adding this visa ban issue to the list worries many of us,” she said.

Indeed, thousands of Nigerians go the UAE annually for leisure, medical tourism, higher education and to transact business. Dubai is also a huge property investment destination for rich Nigerians.

Last year, airlines operating between Nigeria and the UAE lost N26 billion in 19 weeks, when the UAE government stopped flights from Nigeria, according to&nbsp;BusinessDay&nbsp;aviation report

With an estimated population of between 50,000 and 100,000 Nigerians living in the UAE, many believe that the country’s new visa regime, which prohibits Nigerians from being provided with a work permit, violates international conventions.

According to the Article 13 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights “everyone has the right to freedom of movement and residence within the borders of each state”.

Therefore, in the interest of both countries, a lasting diplomatic solution should be pursued on the salient issues of immigration and airline operations.

On the one hand, the Nigerian government should intensify efforts to settle the over $500 million backlog earnings it owes airlines operating in the country.

It should also enter into a form of repatriation agreement with the UAE for Nigerian offenders to return and serve appropriate punishment in Nigeria.

The UAE government should review its visa policies against Nigerians and resist the temptation of using its flagship airline as a diplomatic bargaining chip.

During the 2021 impasse, Sirika has assured that the government has “a responsibility as a government to take certain decisions on behalf of people that are in accordance with the law and that will ensure that our citizens are treated fairly and equally and also enjoy mutual relationships.

The same diplomatic engagement is required by both parties once again to resolve the present logjam and find a lasting solution to the challenge in the interest of the two nations.

President Muhammadu Buhari in UAE. [Twitter:Presidency]

Recently, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) immigration department notified its trade partners and travel agencies that it was stopping visa applications from 22 countries, 20 of which are African nations.

Visa ban: Towards lasting solution to Nigeria-UAE impasse

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kayode adebiyi

Articles written by the author

Niger Republic junta thriving on propaganda but for how long?

Why FBI Director Gray’s visit to Nigeria matters

How sustainable is Nigeria’s public debt?

Visa ban: Towards lasting solution to Nigeria-UAE impasse