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Togo is signalling a potential realignment in West African geopolitics as it openly explores joining the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a coalition of military-led Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
This move could further weaken the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), already reeling from the recent departure of the three Sahelian nations.
Togo’s Foreign Minister, Robert Dussey, has been vocal about the country’s interest in the alliance, initially stating in January that membership was "not impossible."
Last week, he went further, saying on social media, "Togo is considering joining the AES, a strategic decision that could strengthen regional cooperation and offer access to the sea to member countries."
For Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—landlocked nations struggling with jihadist insurgencies and economic hardship—Togo’s coastal access via the port of Lomé would be a game-changer.
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With tensions mounting between the Sahel states and ECOWAS members Ivory Coast and Benin, which have been accused of aligning too closely with Western powers, the trio has already shifted some trade to Togo’s ports.
Analysts suggest that formalising this relationship could unlock further economic and security benefits.
“There’s the hope of economic solidarity: access to Nigerien oil, renewed trade routes,” noted Togolese political analyst Madi Djabakate.
He also pointed to security benefits, suggesting Togo could benefit from “more agile military cooperation, intelligence sharing with its neighbours.”
Jihadist attacks have intensified in northern Togo, bordering Burkina Faso, where militant groups linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State have operated for over a decade.
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The AES, formed initially as a defence pact, has pledged to establish a joint 5,000-strong military force, a move that aligns with Togo’s growing focus on security.
Beyond security, Togo’s shift toward the AES also fits within a broader pan-Africanist ideology that is gaining momentum.
“By engaging with the AES, Togo is part of a pan-African narrative where nations, long divided, are learning to stand together,” Djabakate said.
Some observers argue that domestic politics may also be influencing Togo’s potential pivot. President Faure Gnassingbé, in power since 2005, has faced criticism over constitutional changes that the opposition claims could extend his rule indefinitely.
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Aligning with the AES, which has been resistant to Western-backed calls for democratic transitions, could insulate Togo’s leadership from regional pressure on governance and human rights.
One of Togo’s leading opposition figures, Nathaniel Olympio, warned that leaving ECOWAS would have serious consequences.
“Membership of the AES would protect its regime from the constraints of ECOWAS on respect for the rule of law and public freedoms,” he argued.
ECOWAS has been struggling to maintain cohesion after Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso formally exited the bloc earlier this year.
The trio accused the organisation of serving Western interests rather than addressing the security and economic crises gripping their nations.
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Despite its apparent pivot, Togo may not completely sever ties with ECOWAS. Djabakate suggests that Togo could maintain dual affiliations.
“Alliances aren’t marriages, but rather partnerships,” he remarked, adding that Togo’s port in Lomé remains a “vital artery” for the entire West African region.
However, analysts warn that Togo’s potential AES membership could accelerate ECOWAS’s decline.
“Togo joining the AES would speed up its disintegration,” said Seidik Abba, head of the International Center for Studies and Reflections on the Sahel.
“In any case, it will worsen its already precarious situation.”
As West Africa faces an increasingly fractured political landscape, Togo’s decision in the coming months could shape the region’s future trajectory—either reinforcing ECOWAS’s fragile unity or further shifting power toward the rising Sahel bloc.