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How China could stop a US strike on North Korea — without starting World War III

For China to come to the aide of the Kim regime "would literally mean that China would engage in a third world war," said Tack.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un receives applause as he guides the multiple-rocket launching drill of women's sub-units under KPA Unit 851, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) April 24, 2014.

After North Korea tested a salvo of ballistic missiles designed to defeat US and allied missile defenses in the Pacific, speculation has risen about a possible US "decapitation strike" on North Korea.

With the help of Stratfor's Sim Tack, Business Insider detailed how such a strike would likely play out, but in the interest of keeping the article focused, we omitted a major player — China.

Here's how China would respond if the US were to attack the hermit kingdom.

China has interests in preserving the North Korean state, but not enough to start World War III over.

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China may not endorse North Korea's nuclear threats toward the US, South Korea, and Japan, or its abysmal human-rights practices, but Beijing does have a vested interest in preventing reunification on the Korean peninsula.

Still, China's proximity to North Korea means that the US would likely alert Chinese forces of an attack — whether they gave 30 minutes' or 30 days' notice, the Chinese response would likely be to preclude — not thwart — such an attack.

China sees a united Korea as a threat.

"A united Korea is potentially very powerful, country right on China's border," with a functioning democracy, booming tech sector, and a Western bent, which represents "a problem they’d rather not deal with," according to Tack.

The US has more than 25,000 troops permanently stationed in South Korea, but no US asset has crossed the 38th parallel in decades. China would like to keep it that way.

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And without North Korea, China would find itself exposed.

For China, the North Korean state acts as a "physical buffer against US allies and forces," said Tack. If the US could base forces in North Korea, they'd be right on China's border, and thereby better situated to contain China as it continues to rise as a world power.

Tack said that China would "definitely react to and try to prevent" US action that could lead to a reunified Korea, but the idea that Chinese ground forces would flood into North Korea and fight against the West is "not particularly likely at all."

Overtly backing North Korea against the West would be political suicide for China.

For China to come to the aide of the Kim regime — an international pariah with concentration camps and ambitions to nuke the US — just to protect a buffer state "would literally mean that China would engage in a third world war," said Tack.

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So while China would certainly try to mitigate the fall of North Korea, it's extremely unlikely they'd do so with direct force against the West, like it did in the Korean War.

Any response from China would likely start with diplomacy.

Currently, the US has an aircraft carrier, nuclear submarines, F-22s, and F-35s in the Pacific. Many of the US's biggest guns shipped out to the Pacific for Foal Eagle, the annual military exercise between the US and South Korea.

But according to Tack, the real deliberations on North Korea's fate aren't going on between military planners, but between Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and the Chinese diplomats he'll be meeting with.

Even after decades of failed diplomacy, there's still hope for a non-military solution.

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"There's

"China could bring forces into North Korea to act as a tripwire," said Tack.

It's pretty likely that China would try to force the "infallible" ruler's hand.

But even if China does potentially save the day, it could still be perceived as the bad guy.

Chinese leaders wants to avoid a strong, US-aligned Korea on its borders. They want to prevent a massive refugee outflow from a crushed North Korean state. And they want to defuse the Korean peninsula's nuclear tensions — but in doing so, they'd expose an ugly truth.

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US President Donald Trump has accused China of refusing to help with North Korea.

If China unilaterally denuclearized North Korea to head off a US strike, this would only vindicate that claim, and raise questions as to why China allowed North Korea to develop and export dangerous technologies and commit heinous human rights abuses.

So what happens in the end?

For China, it's "not even about saving" the approximately 25 million living under a brutal dictatorship in North Korea, but rather maintaining its buffer state, according to Tack.

China would likely seek to install an alternative government to the Kim regime but one that still opposes the West and does not cooperate with the US.

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According to Tack, China needs a North Korean state that says "we

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