LONDON — It's "Super Thursday."
SUPER THURSDAY: What to expect from the Bank of England later today
It is widely expected that there won't be any change to the Bank's monetary policy, with interest rates set to stay at a record low of 0.25%.
That's down to inflation's surge in recent months, linked to the plummeting value of the pound since Britain voted to leave the EU last summer. Falling sterling has pushed up the price of importing goods, passing through to everyday items that regular Brits buy. This is now showing up in official inflation data, which at the latest reading sat at 2.3%, a joint-high not seen since early 2014.
A hawkish shift?
While rates are expected to stay the same, what could happen is another member of the Monetary Policy Committee voting for a hike. At its last meeting only one member of the nine-person committee — arch-hawk Kristin Forbes — voted to raise rates, but she could be joined by Ian
"The UK has only now begun to feel the beginning of the post-referendum slowdown,"
"Given the ascent of headline CPI (which we expect to peak at 3.1% y/y in June and August), the increasing likelihood of negative real wage growth in the coming months, the likely tightening of unsecured consumer credit over the coming quarters (which has of late supported resilience in household consumption), as well as the lowest savings ratio since records began, we expect that UK GDP growth will continue to decelerate over the course of 2017 as households are forced to tighten their belts."
"All in all, we believe this strengthens our view that the Bank of England MPC will leave its monetary policy stance unchanged over our forecast horizon (until end 2018)."
As with all inflation reports, BoE Governor Mark Carney will answer questions following its release and could be quizzed on issues away from the bank's macro forecasting and monetary policy decisions. Likely topics include the resignation of Hogg after she failed to report a possible conflict of interest, as well as the lack of gender diversity in senior roles at the bank.
The BoE currently has just one female MPC member, Kristin Forbes, who will leave her role in the summer.
Carney will also — almost certainly — be asked about Brexit, given that Thursday's announcement is the first MPC decision since Britain triggered Article 50 at the end of March.