Money is pouring in on Macron to win the French election

pulse

May 5, 2017 2:52 PM

Betting markets, pollsters, and traders will all be upended if LePen wins the French election on Sunday.

Emmanuel Macron.

Centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right candidate Marine Le Pen are set to square off in the second round of the French Presidential election this Sunday.

People betting on the outcome — on sports-betting websites and in currency and bond markets — seem to be pretty sure Macron will win.

Macron, who saw his lead in a poll conducted by Elable extend to 62% to Le Pen's 38%, has attracted about 76% of all bets, totaling $1.1 million, according to Sportsbet.com.au. A winning bet on Macron will pay out $1.11 for every $1 wagered. Previously those bets were paying out $1.14.

Of course people were similarly sure that a pro-Europe vote in the UK, just before the country chose instead to exit the union, and pollsters were predicting President Donald Trump would lose the US election. In this case, those willing to bet against the grain would get a $7 payout for every $1 wagered on a Le Pen victory at Sportsbet.com.

It's not just the polls and betting markets pointing to a Macron win. The spread between the French 10-year yield and the German 10-year yield is narrowing, a sign that traders believe Macron will win and France will stay on the euro.

During her campaign, Le Pen said she would ask European leaders and the European Central Bank to replace the euro with a basket of new national currencies, in effect breaking up the single currency.

"The euro is not a currency," Le Pen said in February

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